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Synthetic American Option Pricing via Jump-HMM-Driven Heston Implied Volatility

Bibliographic record. Follow the original-source link for the publication.

Field Value
Primary domain Volatility
Other domains
Methods Financial Ml, Research Methods
Facets
Authors Julia Sun, Zheyu Jin, Jiawei Zhang, Jeffrey D. Varner
Published 2026-05-13
Source arXiv Quantitative Finance History
Identifiers arxiv:2605.13998
URL Open original source

Editorial synthesis

Why it matters

This work addresses the circular dependency between implied-volatility and option prices by generating implied volatility from a structural return model, which is relevant for synthetic data quality and coherent risk-testing pipelines. (abstract:S1, abstract:S2, abstract:S3, abstract:S4, abstract:S5, abstract:S6, abstract:S7, abstract:S8)

Main author claims

  • The authors claim synthetic data generation breaks circularity by deriving implied-vol paths from Jump-HMM return paths through a modified Heston process and pricing American options with a recombining binomial lattice. (abstract:S1, abstract:S2, abstract:S3)
  • They claim smile, skew, and term structure emerge without external calibration, with a hierarchical parametric+shared+sector neural surrogate for multi-sector ladders and event-driven generalization in temporal holdout. (abstract:S4, abstract:S5, abstract:S6, abstract:S7)
  • The authors report joint simulation of path-conditional implied volatility, finite-difference American Greeks, and terminal short-premium PnL on real near-the-money options, followed by a second-underlying robustness run; the implementation is released as an open-source Julia package. (abstract:S7, abstract:S8)

Data, method, or discussion scope

Scope includes the broken-circularity claim, Jump-HMM and modified Heston pipeline, hierarchical calibration (parametric + neural surrogates), temporal holdout findings, and the open-source Julia package statement. (abstract:S1, abstract:S2, abstract:S3, abstract:S4, abstract:S5, abstract:S6, abstract:S7, abstract:S8)

Main limitations

The pipeline depends on state, mood and surrogate design assumptions with limited reproducible specification, making risk diagnostics and failure-mode tracing harder. (abstract:S3, abstract:S5, abstract:S7)

Relationships

  • None recorded.